As the popularity of the men’s NCAA Tournament has skyrocketed, the rise of bracket pools where participants attempt to predict the winner of each game has been a major factor. And the first-round matchup of a No.5 seed and a No.12 seed has broken many brackets — or created them, if the picker was astute — in the past.
Check out the college basketball area of the FOX Sports App and FOXSports.com for more, including gambling-friendly schedules with live, updated odds, expert commentary, and the day’s most-bet games! Since 2010, a No.12 seed has defeated a No.5 seed 17 times, capturing 39% of the 44 games played against a No.5 seed during this time frame.
More than one No.12 seed has won five times in the eleven tournaments prior. As fans and gamblers became aware of the success of No.12 seeds, so did bookmakers. “We used to have a prop, ‘Would a 12 defeat a 5,’ and we lost every year,” said BetMGM’s Director of Trading, Jeff Stoneback.
“We no longer even provide it.” Last year, the No.12 seed in the Midwest Region, the Oregon State Beavers, astonished the world (well, maybe everybody outside Corvallis, Oregon) by reaching to the Elite Eight. The Beavers opened their tournament run with a 70-56 victory against No.5 Tennessee as 8.5-point underdogs.
Will the past be repeated? Twenty-one of the last twenty-five NCAA Tournaments have been won by a 12 seed. All four No.5s advanced in the years 2000, 2007, 2015, and 2018. The No.5 seeds lead the No.12 seeds by a score of 93-51. (64.6 winning percentage).
- The finest years to ride No.12 seeds were 2013, 2014, and 2019 when three No.12s triumphed.
- Stoneback noted, “There is not as much of a distinction between a 5 seed and a 12 seed as there was, say, ten years ago.” “With spreads of 2.5, 6.5, 8.5, and 10.5, it is evident that it may easily occur again this year.” I don’t know why this has captured everyone’s attention over the past few years, but I assume it’s because (a 12 defeating a 5) typically occurs.” Indiana vs.
Saint Mary’s in the East Region, Richmond vs. Iowa in the Midwest Region, New Mexico State vs. UConn in the West Region on Thursday, and UAB vs. Houston in the South Region on Friday are this year’s 12 vs.5 matches. Will there be another 5-12 upset in this tournament? The senior basketball trader at FOX Bet, Tieme Wesselink, believes Mike Woodson’s Hoosiers will win their second game in three days on Thursday.
- Indiana advanced to the Round of 64 on Tuesday after defeating Wyoming 66-58.
- During his junior year, Woodson and the Hoosiers won the 1979 NIT championship.
- Having played a game in the First Four is not always detrimental for the first round, as weariness is not a major problem at this time,” Wesselink remarked.
Rather, a team can gain by being more at ease in its setting and under less pressure after advancing to the Final Four. Thus concludes the argument, people. This season, will a No.12 team pull off a not-so-shocking upset of a No.5 team? If you feel like wagering a few dollars on certain No.12 seeds, visit FOX Bet to put your wagers.
How often has a 12 seed defeated a 5 seed?
Now that Selection Sunday has passed, it is time to complete your brackets. The selection of which No.12 seeds will upset No.5 seeds is arguably one of the most popular wagers among college basketball fans every year. Why, you ask? History. Since 2010, 17 12-seeds have defeated 5-seeds, and five times in the previous eleven tournaments, this has occurred against several teams in the same tournament.
- SI Sportsbook offers NCAA Tournament odds and betting lines.
- LM Otero/AP Bettors and those filling up brackets should take note of the fact that No.12 seeds have prevailed 39 percent of the time in 44 contests over the past ten years.
- Last year, the No.12 Oregon State Beavers upset the No.5 Tennessee Volunteers as 8.5-point underdogs with +300 moneyline odds.
Historically, the 5-seed has a 93-51 lead over the 12-seed. In 21 of the previous 25 tournaments, the 12-seed has won at least one game in 21 of those years. The only years in which the better seeds did not suffer at least one upset were 2000, 2007, 2015, and 2018. 
History of 12 seed shocks against 5 seed teams in the NCAA Tournament – There is something quite amazing about 12-5 games. Think about the following: 50 12-over-5 upsets have occurred during the previous 40 years, compared to 52 11-over-6 victories and 55 10-over-7 outcomes.
Remember that teams seeded on the No.5 line are often ranked in the top 20 in the polls, whilst teams seeded on the No.7 line are barely in the “also getting votes” category, yet the 5 seeds lose almost as often as the 7 seeds. And instead of listing every year in which a 12-over-5 upset occurred, it is much — MUCH — simpler to enumerate the years in which it did not occur: 1988, 2000, 2007, 2015 and 2018.
It has been five years. That concludes the list. How often have at least two No.12 seeds triumphed? Let’s look: 1990, 1994, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2009.2012, 2013, 2014, 2019. If you didn’t feel like counting, that’s thirteen. History indicates that it is more than TWICE as probable for at least TWO 12 seeds to win than for NO 12 seeds to win.
However, there is more! Here are the years in which THREE 12 seeds defeated a 5 seed: 2002, 2009, 2013, 2014, and 2019. Five times yes. In the previous 40 years, there have been the same number of years with three 12 seeds winning games as with none. In fact, in 2013-2014, No.12 seeds were 6-2 versus No.5 seeds.
So, people, choose at least one 12-over-5 upset.
| Year | Result | Score |
| 1985 | Kentucky def. Washington | 66-58 |
| 1986 | DePaul def. Virginia | 72-68 |
| 1987 | Wyoming def. Virginia | 64-60 |
| 1989 | DePaul def. Memphis State | 66-63 |
| 1990 | Dayton def. Illinois | 88-86 |
| 1990 | Ball State def. Oregon State | 54-53 |
| 1991 | Eastern Michigan def. Mississippi State | 76-56 |
| 1992 | New Mexico State def. DePaul | 81-73 |
| 1993 | George Washington def. New Mexico | 82-68 |
| 1994 | UW-Green Bay def. California | 61-57 |
| 1994 | Tulsa def. UCLA | 112-102 |
| 1995 | Miami (Ohio) def. Arizona | 71-62 |
| 1996 | Drexel def. Memphis | 75-63 |
| 1996 | Arkansas def. Penn State | 86-80 |
| 1997 | College of Charleston def. Maryland | 75-66 |
| 1998 | Florida State def. TCU | 96-87 |
| 1999 | Detroit def. UCLA | 56-53 |
| 1999 | Missouri State def. TCU | 96-87 |
| 2001 | Utah State def. Ohio State | 77-68 (OT) |
| 2001 | Gonzaga def. Virginia | 86-85 |
| 2002 | Tulsa def. Marquette | 71-69 |
| 2002 | Missouri def. Miami (Fla.) | 93-80 |
| 2002 | Creighton def. Florida | 83-82 (2OT) |
| 2003 | Butler def. Mississippi State | 47-46 |
| 2004 | Pacific def. Providence | 66-58 |
| 2005 | Milwaukee def. Alabama | 83-73 |
| 2006 | Montana def. Nevada | 87-79 |
| 2006 | Texas A&M def. Syracuse | 66-58 |
| 2008 | Villanova def. Clemson | 75-69 |
| 2008 | Western Kentucky def. Drake | 101-99 (OT) |
| 2009 | Wisconsin def. Florida State | 61-59 (OT) |
| 2009 | Arizona def. Utah | 84-71 |
| 2009 | Western Kentucky def. Illinois | 76-72 |
| 2010 | Cornell def. Temple | 78-65 |
| 2011 | Richmond def. Vanderbilt | 69-66 |
| 2012 | South Florida def. Temple | 58-44 |
| 2012 | VCU def. Wichita State | 62-59 |
| 2013 | Ole Miss def. Wisconsin | 57-46 |
| 2013 | California def. UNLV | 64-61 |
| 2013 | Oregon def. Oklahoma State | 68-55 |
| 2014 | Harvard def. Cincinnati | 61-57 |
| 2014 | North Dakota State def. Oklahoma | 80-75 (OT) |
| 2014 | Stephen F. Austin def. VCU | 77-75 (OT) |
| 2016 | Little Rock def. Purdue | 85-83 (2OT) |
| 2016 | Yale def. Baylor | 79-75 |
| 2017 | Middle Tennessee def. Minnesota | 81-72 |
| 2019 | Oregon def. Wisconsin | 72-54 |
| 2019 | Liberty def. Mississippi State | 80-76 |
| 2019 | Murray State def. Marquette | 83-64 |
| 2021 | Oregon State def. Tennessee | 70-56 |
MORE:
How often has an 11 seed defeated a 6 seed?
The 11-6 March Madness shock selection is less enticing than the 12-5, but it has a better recent success percentage. In the last five years, No.11 seeds are 11-9 versus No.6 seeds, and have had a significant amount of success historically. In 2021, UCLA defeated BYU as the No.11 seed and continued winning till the Final Four. Here is all you need to know about March Madness’ 11s vs 6s.
History of Bracket Performance and Advice – First Round: 35% of teams win, which corresponds to an 83% probability of at least one upset. Five times, a 12-seed failed to progress. Only 15 percent of 12-seeds get through the second round. It occurred in the past two tournaments after a five-year absence.
What are the most typical March Madness upsets?
According to the stats, here’s how to predict March Madness men’s upsets | NCAA.com Prepare your crystal ball, because it’s time to make your March Madness picks for this year. Regardless of how adept you are at predicting upsets in the NCAA tournament, one issue applies to every fan: how many upsets should I pick? Since 1985, when the field expanded to 64 teams, we analyzed the past 36 NCAA tournaments and calculated the results for each round.
Now we recommend you to select as many upsets as possible without going overboard. First, let’s lay some ground rules. We defined a “upset” as a victory by a team ranked at least two seed lines higher than its opponent in an NCAA tournament game. There are too many common matchups where the difference in seeding is only one seed line (e.g., the 8/9 game in the first round, the common 4/5 game in the second round, and the 1/2 matchup in the Elite Eight), so it seems to diminish the meaning of “upset” to say that a No.9 seed defeating a No.8 seed is an upset.
Using this definition of an upset, there have been between 10 and 16 upsets in the NCAA tournament in 28 of the previous 36 seasons. The annual average is around 12,4 incidents. There have been as few as four upsets in 2007 and as many as 19 in 2014, but the sweet spot is clearly in between.
- There were 18 teams in the NCAA Tournament in 2021.
- If you are a calculated risk-taker, you should attempt 16 upsets.
- This has occurred four times (1990, 1999, 2002, and 2010).
- If you want to err on the side of caution – i.e., “How few upset choices is too few?” – nine is a decent amount to go for.
- There have been fewer than nine upsets in a single NCAA tournament only three times in the past 36 tournaments.
The 2007 event was the only time there were less than eight participants. Here is a complete analysis.
| Avg | Least | Most | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Upsets | 12.4 | 4 (2007) | 19 (2014) |
| First Round | 6.2 | 2 (2007) | 10 (2016) |
| Second Round | 3.7 | 0 (4 occasions) | 8 (2000) |
| Sweet 16 | 1.7 | 0 (5 occasions) | 4 (1990) |
| Elite Eight | 0.5 | 0 (10 occasions) | 2 (3 occasions) |
| Final Four | 0.2 | 0 (25 occasions) | 2 (2014) |
To address the initial question, 20 upsets is probably too many to predict (and six is probably too few). Next, a matter of equal importance: Where should these shocking selections be made? Given the amount of games every round and the caliber of teams who progress in each round, your number of upset choices should be around half of what it was in the previous round based on the statistics shown above.
| FIRST ROUND UPSET | FREQUENCY | PCT |
|---|---|---|
| No.10 seed over No.7 seed | 57 | 39.5% |
| No.11 seed over No.6 seed | 54 | 37.5% |
| No.12 seed over No.5 seed | 51 | 35.4% |
| No.13 seed over No.4 seed | 31 | 21.5% |
| No.14 seed over No.3 seed | 22 | 15.3% |
| No.15 seed over No.2 seed | 9 | 6.3% |
| No.16 seed over No.1 seed | 1 | 0.7% |
Based on the outcomes of the first round, there are less opportunities for individual upsets in terms of seeding following the first round. However, if we combine some of the seed lines inside specific four-team pods (e.g., a No.7/No.10 seed upsetting a No.2 seed, or a No.6/No.11 seed upsetting a No.3 seed, etc.), it will be easier to determine how many upsets you should choose in your bracket.
| Second Round upset | Frequency |
|---|---|
| 6 seed vs.3 seed | 29 |
| 7 seed vs.2 seed | 26 |
| 10 seed vs.2 seed | 18 |
| 11 seed vs.3 seed | 18 |
| 8 seed vs.1 seed | 14 |
| 12 seed vs.4 seed | 13 |
| 9 seed vs.1 seed | 6 |
| 13 seed vs.5 seed | 3 |
| 14 seed vs.6 seed | 2 |
| 15 seed vs.7 seed | 2 |
According to the stats, here’s how to predict March Madness men’s upsets | NCAA.com
