As the popularity of the men’s NCAA Tournament has skyrocketed, the rise of bracket pools where participants attempt to predict the winner of each game has been a major factor. And the first-round matchup of a No.5 seed and a No.12 seed has broken many brackets — or created them, if the picker was astute — in the past.
Check out the college basketball area of the FOX Sports App and FOXSports.com for more, including gambling-friendly schedules with live, updated odds, expert commentary, and the day’s most-bet games! Since 2010, a No.12 seed has defeated a No.5 seed 17 times, capturing 39% of the 44 games played against a No.5 seed during this time frame.
More than one No.12 seed has won five times in the eleven tournaments prior. As fans and gamblers became aware of the success of No.12 seeds, so did bookmakers. “We used to have a prop, ‘Would a 12 defeat a 5,’ and we lost every year,” said BetMGM’s Director of Trading, Jeff Stoneback.
“We no longer even provide it.” Last year, the No.12 seed in the Midwest Region, the Oregon State Beavers, astonished the world (well, maybe everybody outside Corvallis, Oregon) by reaching to the Elite Eight. The Beavers opened their tournament run with a 70-56 victory against No.5 Tennessee as 8.5-point underdogs.
Will the past be repeated? Twenty-one of the last twenty-five NCAA Tournaments have been won by a 12 seed. All four No.5s advanced in the years 2000, 2007, 2015, and 2018. The No.5 seeds lead the No.12 seeds by a score of 93-51. (64.6 winning percentage).
The finest years to ride No.12 seeds were 2013, 2014, and 2019 when three No.12s triumphed. Stoneback noted, “There is not as much of a distinction between a 5 seed and a 12 seed as there was, say, ten years ago.” “With spreads of 2.5, 6.5, 8.5, and 10.5, it is evident that it may easily occur again this year.” I don’t know why this has captured everyone’s attention over the past few years, but I assume it’s because (a 12 defeating a 5) typically occurs.” Indiana vs.
Saint Mary’s in the East Region, Richmond vs. Iowa in the Midwest Region, New Mexico State vs. UConn in the West Region on Thursday, and UAB vs. Houston in the South Region on Friday are this year’s 12 vs.5 matches. Will there be another 5-12 upset in this tournament? The senior basketball trader at FOX Bet, Tieme Wesselink, believes Mike Woodson’s Hoosiers will win their second game in three days on Thursday.
Indiana advanced to the Round of 64 on Tuesday after defeating Wyoming 66-58. During his junior year, Woodson and the Hoosiers won the 1979 NIT championship. “Having played a game in the First Four is not always detrimental for the first round, as weariness is not a major problem at this time,” Wesselink remarked.
Rather, a team can gain by being more at ease in its setting and under less pressure after advancing to the Final Four. Thus concludes the argument, people. This season, will a No.12 team pull off a not-so-shocking upset of a No.5 team? If you feel like wagering a few dollars on certain No.12 seeds, visit FOX Bet to put your wagers.
How many times have 12 seeds beaten 5 seeds?
Now that Selection Sunday has passed, it is time to complete your brackets. The selection of which No.12 seeds will upset No.5 seeds is arguably one of the most popular wagers among college basketball fans every year. Why, you ask? History. Since 2010, 17 12-seeds have defeated 5-seeds, and five times in the previous eleven tournaments, this has occurred against several teams in the same tournament.
- SI Sportsbook offers NCAA Tournament odds and betting lines.
- LM Otero/AP Bettors and those filling up brackets should take note of the fact that No.12 seeds have prevailed 39 percent of the time in 44 contests over the past ten years.
- Last year, the No.12 Oregon State Beavers upset the No.5 Tennessee Volunteers as 8.5-point underdogs with +300 moneyline odds.
Historically, the 5-seed has a 93-51 lead over the 12-seed. In 21 of the previous 25 tournaments, the 12-seed has won at least one game in 21 of those years. The only years in which the better seeds did not suffer at least one upset were 2000, 2007, 2015, and 2018.
How often has a 14 seed defeated a 3 seed?
History of March Madness 14 vs.3 seeds – Since 1985, 22 14 seeds have defeated 3 seeds, giving them an overall record of 22-122. That corresponds to a 15.3 percent victory rate. Here are every instance in which it has ever occurred.
14 vs.3 March Madness upsets| Year | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1986 | Cleveland State def. Indiana | 83-79 |
| 1986 | Arkansas Little-Rock def. Notre Dame | 90-83 |
| 1987 | Austin Peay def. Illinois | 68-67 |
| 1988 | Murray State def. NC State | 78-75 |
| 1989 | Siena def. Stanford | 80-78 |
| 1990 | Northern Iowa def. Missouri | 74-71 |
| 1991 | Xavier def. Nebraska | 89-84 |
| 1992 | ETSU def. Arizona | 87-80 |
| 1995 | Old Dominion def. Villanova | 89-81 |
| 1995 | Weber State def. Michigan State | 79-72 |
| 1997 | Chattanooga def. Georgia | 73-70 |
| 1998 | Richmond def. South Carolina | 62-61 |
| 1999 | Weber State def. North Carolina | 76-74 |
| 2005 | Bucknell def. Kansas | 64-63 |
| 2006 | Northwestern State def. Iowa | 64-63 |
| 2010 | Ohio def. Georgetown | 97-83 |
| 2013 | Harvard def. New Mexico | 68-62 |
| 2014 | Mercer def. Duke | 78-71 |
| 2015 | UAB def. Iowa State | 60-59 |
| 2015 | Georgia State def. Baylor | 57-56 |
| 2016 | Stephen F. Austin def. West Virginia | 70-56 |
| 2021 | Abilene Christian def. Texas | 53-52 |
Additional tidbits: In 19 of the 36 years since the tournament field expanded to 64 teams, a No.14 seed has defeated a No.3 seed at least once. Only two fourteenth-seeded teams have ever gotten past the second round: Cleveland State in 1986 and Chattanooga in 1997.14th-ranked seeds are 12-9 in games decided by three points or less.
- Three of the most recent 14-over-3 upsets (Georgia State over Baylor in 2015, UAB over Iowa State in 2016, and Abilene Christian over Texas in 2021) were settled by a single point.
- The largest upset in a 14 vs.3 game, by 14 points, was equaled between SFA’s victory in 2016 and Ohio’s victory against Georgetown in 2010.
Only one 14-3 upset has required extra time. This was the 1995 match between Old Dominion and Villanova, which required three additional periods. A 14 seed defeated a 3 seed for seven consecutive years, from 1986 to 1992. This run came to an end in 1993.
Does a 12 seed win annually?
History of 12 seed vs 5 seed shocks in the NCAA Tournament – There is something truly special about these 12-5 contests. Consider that there have been 50 12-over-5 upsets over the previous 40 years, but only 52 11-over-6 victories and 55 10-over-7 outcomes.
- Remember that teams seeded on the No.5 line are often ranked in the top 20 in the polls, whilst teams seeded on the No.7 line are barely in the “also getting votes” category, yet the 5 seeds lose almost as often as the 7 seeds.
- And instead of listing every year in which a 12-over-5 upset occurred, it is much — MUCH — simpler to enumerate the years in which it did not occur: 1988, 2000, 2007, 2015, and 2018.
It has been five years. That concludes the list. How often have at least two No.12 seeds triumphed? Let’s look: 1990, 1994, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2009.2012, 2013, 2014, 2019. If you didn’t feel like counting, that’s thirteen. History indicates that it is more than TWICE as probable for at least TWO 12 seeds to win than for NO 12 seeds to win.
- However, there is more! Here are the years in which THREE 12 seeds defeated a 5 seed: 2002, 2009, 2013, 2014, and 2019.
- Five times yes.
- In the previous 40 years, there have been the same number of years with three 12 seeds winning games as with none.
- In fact, in 2013-2014, No.12 seeds were 6-2 versus No.5 seeds.
So, people, choose at least one 12-over-5 upset.
| Year | Result | Score |
| 1985 | Kentucky def. Washington | 66-58 |
| 1986 | DePaul def. Virginia | 72-68 |
| 1987 | Wyoming def. Virginia | 64-60 |
| 1989 | DePaul def. Memphis State | 66-63 |
| 1990 | Dayton def. Illinois | 88-86 |
| 1990 | Ball State def. Oregon State | 54-53 |
| 1991 | Eastern Michigan def. Mississippi State | 76-56 |
| 1992 | New Mexico State def. DePaul | 81-73 |
| 1993 | George Washington def. New Mexico | 82-68 |
| 1994 | UW-Green Bay def. California | 61-57 |
| 1994 | Tulsa def. UCLA | 112-102 |
| 1995 | Miami (Ohio) def. Arizona | 71-62 |
| 1996 | Drexel def. Memphis | 75-63 |
| 1996 | Arkansas def. Penn State | 86-80 |
| 1997 | College of Charleston def. Maryland | 75-66 |
| 1998 | Florida State def. TCU | 96-87 |
| 1999 | Detroit def. UCLA | 56-53 |
| 1999 | Missouri State def. TCU | 96-87 |
| 2001 | Utah State def. Ohio State | 77-68 (OT) |
| 2001 | Gonzaga def. Virginia | 86-85 |
| 2002 | Tulsa def. Marquette | 71-69 |
| 2002 | Missouri def. Miami (Fla.) | 93-80 |
| 2002 | Creighton def. Florida | 83-82 (2OT) |
| 2003 | Butler def. Mississippi State | 47-46 |
| 2004 | Pacific def. Providence | 66-58 |
| 2005 | Milwaukee def. Alabama | 83-73 |
| 2006 | Montana def. Nevada | 87-79 |
| 2006 | Texas A&M def. Syracuse | 66-58 |
| 2008 | Villanova def. Clemson | 75-69 |
| 2008 | Western Kentucky def. Drake | 101-99 (OT) |
| 2009 | Wisconsin def. Florida State | 61-59 (OT) |
| 2009 | Arizona def. Utah | 84-71 |
| 2009 | Western Kentucky def. Illinois | 76-72 |
| 2010 | Cornell def. Temple | 78-65 |
| 2011 | Richmond def. Vanderbilt | 69-66 |
| 2012 | South Florida def. Temple | 58-44 |
| 2012 | VCU def. Wichita State | 62-59 |
| 2013 | Ole Miss def. Wisconsin | 57-46 |
| 2013 | California def. UNLV | 64-61 |
| 2013 | Oregon def. Oklahoma State | 68-55 |
| 2014 | Harvard def. Cincinnati | 61-57 |
| 2014 | North Dakota State def. Oklahoma | 80-75 (OT) |
| 2014 | Stephen F. Austin def. VCU | 77-75 (OT) |
| 2016 | Little Rock def. Purdue | 85-83 (2OT) |
| 2016 | Yale def. Baylor | 79-75 |
| 2017 | Middle Tennessee def. Minnesota | 81-72 |
| 2019 | Oregon def. Wisconsin | 72-54 |
| 2019 | Liberty def. Mississippi State | 80-76 |
| 2019 | Murray State def. Marquette | 83-64 |
| 2021 | Oregon State def. Tennessee | 70-56 |
MORE:
How many five seeds have won the NCAA championship?
The No.5 seed is the only team in the top eight of the NCAA tournament that has never won a national title.
