How Often Does A 12 Seed Beat A 5 Seed?

How Often Does A 12 Seed Beat A 5 Seed
History of 12 seed shocks against 5 seed teams in the NCAA Tournament – There is something quite amazing about 12-5 games. Think about the following: 50 12-over-5 upsets have occurred during the previous 40 years, compared to 52 11-over-6 victories and 55 10-over-7 outcomes.

Remember that teams seeded on the No.5 line are often ranked in the top 20 in the polls, whilst teams seeded on the No.7 line are barely in the “also getting votes” category, yet the 5 seeds lose almost as often as the 7 seeds. And instead of listing every year in which a 12-over-5 upset occurred, it is much — MUCH — simpler to enumerate the years in which it did not occur: 1988, 2000, 2007, 2015 and 2018.

It has been five years. That concludes the list. How often have at least two No.12 seeds triumphed? Let’s look: 1990, 1994, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2009.2012, 2013, 2014, 2019. If you didn’t feel like counting, that’s thirteen. History indicates that it is more than TWICE as probable for at least TWO 12 seeds to win than for NO 12 seeds to win.

However, there is more! Here are the years in which THREE 12 seeds defeated a 5 seed: 2002, 2009, 2013, 2014, and 2019. Five times yes. In the previous 40 years, there have been the same number of years with three 12 seeds winning games as with none. In fact, in 2013-2014, No.12 seeds were 6-2 versus No.5 seeds.

So, people, choose at least one 12-over-5 upset.

Year Result Score
1985 Kentucky def. Washington 66-58
1986 DePaul def. Virginia 72-68
1987 Wyoming def. Virginia 64-60
1989 DePaul def. Memphis State 66-63
1990 Dayton def. Illinois 88-86
1990 Ball State def. Oregon State 54-53
1991 Eastern Michigan def. Mississippi State 76-56
1992 New Mexico State def. DePaul 81-73
1993 George Washington def. New Mexico 82-68
1994 UW-Green Bay def. California 61-57
1994 Tulsa def. UCLA 112-102
1995 Miami (Ohio) def. Arizona 71-62
1996 Drexel def. Memphis 75-63
1996 Arkansas def. Penn State 86-80
1997 College of Charleston def. Maryland 75-66
1998 Florida State def. TCU 96-87
1999 Detroit def. UCLA 56-53
1999 Missouri State def. TCU 96-87
2001 Utah State def. Ohio State 77-68 (OT)
2001 Gonzaga def. Virginia 86-85
2002 Tulsa def. Marquette 71-69
2002 Missouri def. Miami (Fla.) 93-80
2002 Creighton def. Florida 83-82 (2OT)
2003 Butler def. Mississippi State 47-46
2004 Pacific def. Providence 66-58
2005 Milwaukee def. Alabama 83-73
2006 Montana def. Nevada 87-79
2006 Texas A&M def. Syracuse 66-58
2008 Villanova def. Clemson 75-69
2008 Western Kentucky def. Drake 101-99 (OT)
2009 Wisconsin def. Florida State 61-59 (OT)
2009 Arizona def. Utah 84-71
2009 Western Kentucky def. Illinois 76-72
2010 Cornell def. Temple 78-65
2011 Richmond def. Vanderbilt 69-66
2012 South Florida def. Temple 58-44
2012 VCU def. Wichita State 62-59
2013 Ole Miss def. Wisconsin 57-46
2013 California def. UNLV 64-61
2013 Oregon def. Oklahoma State 68-55
2014 Harvard def. Cincinnati 61-57
2014 North Dakota State def. Oklahoma 80-75 (OT)
2014 Stephen F. Austin def. VCU 77-75 (OT)
2016 Little Rock def. Purdue 85-83 (2OT)
2016 Yale def. Baylor 79-75
2017 Middle Tennessee def. Minnesota 81-72
2019 Oregon def. Wisconsin 72-54
2019 Liberty def. Mississippi State 80-76
2019 Murray State def. Marquette 83-64
2021 Oregon State def. Tennessee 70-56
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MORE:

How frequently do 6 seeds defeat 11 seeds?

Since 1985, No.11 seeds have a 54-90 (.375) record versus No.6 seeds.

How many five seeded teams have reached the Final Four?

There are two distinct tables listed below. The first table displays the frequency with which each seed has reached the last four. The percentage is computed by dividing the total number of times a specific seed has reached the final four by the total number of teams to reach the final four.

  • The second table contains a list of the Final Four teams and their seeds, as well as the champion and runner-up.
  • The NCAA did not begin seeding teams until 1979, therefore for all years before to then, just the teams who competed are included.
  • The tables are current through the conclusion of the 2022 season.

There have been 172 appearances in the Final Four. See also the percentages of NCAA Tournament Champions by Seed and NCAA Tournament Upsets by Seed.

Seed Number of Final Four Appearances Percentage
#1 69 40.12%
#2 37 21.51%
#3 19 11.05%
#4 14 8.14%
#5 8 4.65%
#6 6 3.49%
#7 4 2.33%
#8 7 4.077%
#9 2 1.16%
#10 1 ,58%
#11 5 2.90%
#12 0 0%
#13 0 0%
#14 0 0%
#15 0 0%
#16 0 0%

table>

Year Winning Team Runner Up Final Four Final Four 2021 Baylor #1 Gonzaga #1 Houston #2 UCLA #11 2019 Virginia #1 Texas Tech #3 Auburn #5 Michigan State #2 2018 Villanova #1 Michigan #3 Kansas #1 Loyola-Chicago #11 2017 N. Carolina #1 Gonzaga #1 Oregon #3 South Carolina #7 2016 Villanova #2 N. Carolina #1 Oklahoma #2 Syracuse #10 2015 Duke #1 Wisconsin #1 Kentucky #1 Michigan St. #7 2014 Connecticut #7 Kentucky #8 Florida #1 Wisconsin #2 2013 Louisville #1 Michigan #4 Wichita St. #9 Syracuse #4 2012 Kentucky #1 Kansas #2 Louisville #4 Ohio St. #2 2011 UConn #3 Butler #8 Kentucky #4 VCU #11 2010 Duke #1 Butler #5 West Virginia #2 Michigan St. #5 2009 N. Carolina #1 Michigan St. #2 Villanova #3 UConn #1 2008 Kansas #1 Memphis #1 N. Carolina #1 UCLA #1 2007 Florida #1 Ohio St. #1 UCLA #2 Georgetown #2 2006 Florida #3 UCLA #2 George Mason #11 LSU #4 2005 N. Carolina #1 Illinois #1 Michigan St. #5 Louisville #4 2004 UConn #2 Ga. Tech #3 Duke #1 Oklahoma St. #2 2003 Syracuse #3 Kansas #2 Texas #1 Marquette #3 2002 Maryland #1 Indiana #5 Kansas #1 Oklahoma #2 2001 Duke #1 Arizona #2 Maryland #3 Michigan St. #1 2000 Michigan St. #1 Florida #5 Wisconsin #8 N. Carolina #8 1999 UConn #1 Duke #1 Ohio St. #4 Michigan St. #1 1998 Kentucky #2 Utah #3 Stanford #3 N. Carolina #1 1997 Arizona #4 Kentucky #1 N. Carolina #1 Minnesota #1 1996 Kentucky #1 Syracuse #4 Umass #1 Miss. St. #5 1995 UCLA #1 Arkansas #2 Oklahoma St #4 N. Carolina #2 1994 Arkansas #1 Duke #2 Arizona #2 Florida #3 1993 N. Carolina #1 Michigan #1 Kansas #2 Kentucky #1 1992 Duke #1 Michigan #6 Indiana #2 Cincinnati #4 1991 Duke #1 Kansas #3 UNLV #1 N. Carolina #2 1990 UNLV #1 Duke #3 Georgia Tech #4 Arkansas #4 1989 Michigan #3 Seton Hall #3 Illinois #1 Duke #2 1988 Kansas #6 Oklahoma #1 Duke #2 Arizona #1 1987 Indiana #1 Syracuse #2 UNLV #1 Providence #6 1986 Louisville #2 Duke #1 LSU #11 Kansas #1 1985 Villanova #8 Georgetown #1 Memphis St. #2 St. John’s #1 1984 Georgetown #1 Houston #2 Kentucky #1 Virginia #7 1983 N.C. State #6 Houston #1 Louisville #1 Georgia #4 1982 N. Carolina #1 Georgetown #1 Houston #6 Louisville #3 1981 Indiana #3 N. Carolina #2 Virginia #1 LSU #1 1980 Louisville #2 UCLA #8 Purdue #6 Iowa #5 1979 Michigan St. #2 Indiana St. #1 DePaul #2 Pennsylvania #9 1978 Kentucky Duke Arkansas Notre Dame 1977 Marquette N. Carolina UNLV UNC-Charlotte 1976 Indiana Michigan UCLA Rutgers 1975 UCLA Kentucky Louisville Syracuse 1974 N.C. St. Marquette UCLA Kansas 1973 UCLA Memphis St. Indiana Providence 1972 UCLA Florida St. N. Carolina Louisville 1971 UCLA Villanova Western Kentucky Kansas 1970 UCLA Jacksonville New Mexico St. St. Bonaventure 1969 UCLA Purdue Drake N. Carolina 1968 UCLA N. Carolina Ohio St. Houston 1967 UCLA Dayton Houston N. Carolina 1966 Texas Western Kentucky Duke Utah 1965 UCLA Michigan Princeton Wichita St. 1964 UCLA Duke Michigan Kansas St. 1963 Loyola (IL) Cincinnati Duke Oregon St. 1962 Cincinnati Ohio St. Wake Forest UCLA 1961 Cincinnati Ohio St. St. Joseph’s (PA) Utah 1960 Ohio St. California Cincinnati NYU 1959 California West Virginia Cincinnati Louisville 1958 Kentucky Seattle Temple Kansas St. 1957 N. Carolina Kansas San Francisco Michigan St. 1956 San Francisco Iowa Temple SMU 1955 San Francisco LaSalle Colorado Iowa 1954 LaSalle Bradley Penn St. USC 1953 Indiana Kansas Washington LSU 1952 Kansas St. John’s Illinois Santa Clara 1951 Kentucky Kansas St. Illinois Oklahoma St. 1950 CCNY Bradley N.C. St. Baylor 1949 Kentucky Oklahoma St. Illinois Oregon St. 1948 Kentucky Baylor Holy Cross Kansas St. 1947 Holy Cross Oklahoma Texas CCNY 1946 Oklahoma St. N. Carolina Ohio St. California 1945 Oklahoma St. NYU Arkansas Ohio St. 1944 Utah Dartmouth Iowa St. Ohio St. 1943 Wyoming Georgetown DePaul Texas 1942 Stanford Dartmouth Colorado Kentucky 1941 Wisconsin Washington St. Arkansas Pittsburgh 1940 Indiana Kansas Duquesne USC 1939 Oregon Ohio St. Oklahoma St Villanova
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